Cover image via Hairul Anuar Rahim/New Straits Times
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The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) posted a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025
In fact, the fund is doing so well that economists interviewed by a national English daily have forecast a dividend rate that could surpass last year's 6.30%.
So, how well has EPF performed?
In an announcement on 17 November, EPF posted an investment income of RM63.99 billion for the nine months ending 30 September 2025.
That is an 11% increase compared to the same period last year.
The third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) alone saw its income soar to RM25.07 billion, a massive 27% increase from RM19.67 billion in Q3 2024.
More income usually equals better dividends. With one quarter left to go, EPF is currently outpacing its 2024 performance.
So, will the dividend be higher than last year's 6.30%?
According to economists, it is looking very likely.
Dr Geoffrey Williams, a prominent economist, told the New Straits Times that the strong global performance means the income is "already built in".
"There are always risks in global markets, but EPF is good at managing these risks, and global markets have provided the best returns so far," he said, adding that it looks like there could be a higher dividend for 2025 compared to last year.
Meanwhile, another economist, Dr Mohd Afzanizam from Bank Muamalat, stated that members should expect a "respectable dividend".
However, he warned that the final rate will depend on how EPF performs in the last three months of the year.
However, there are multiple situations to watch out for
Despite the strong year so far, EPF isn't treating the final quarter like a victory lap.
EPF chief executive Ahmad Zulqarnain Onn says they've already started "locking in profits" because of two risks on the horizon, as warned by Afzanizam.
Tech stocks, especially those tied to AI, are priced sky-high. If the hype suddenly cools, as in the "bubble bursts", it'll drag the markets down with it.
Afzanizam told the New Straits Times that all eyes are on December, the moment when, if the US Federal Reserve wavers on cutting interest rates, that hesitation alone could jolt the markets.
In short, while EPF is sitting on a stellar year, it is still being cautious. If nothing dramatic happens in Q4, members could be looking at one of the strongest dividends in recent years.
