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Malaysia may experience a short-lived La Niña episode between late 2025 to early 2026, which could influence rainfall distribution across the country
According to Harian Metro, the National Climate Centre said that the long-term weather outlook from September 2025 to February 2026 shows that most international climate models predict the current El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition will remain neutral, with a 56% probability of persisting until October.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern driven by shifts in winds and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, cycling between a warm phase (El Niño), a cool phase (La Niña), or a neutral state.
According to METMalaysia, current conditions are neutral, with forecasts indicating a possibility of transitioning into a short-lived La Niña.
During this brief La Niña episode in early 2026, METMalaysia said it could affect rainfall distribution patterns across Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, before weather patterns stabilise again
Image for illustration purposes only.
Image via wirestock/freepikCurrently, Malaysia is in the final phase of the Southwest Monsoon, which is expected to last until the end of September
"Southwesterly winds are causing low humidity, thereby reducing the formation of rain clouds in most states," it said.
METMalaysia added that as a result, more dry days than wet days are expected, and warned of localised and transboundary haze if open burning activities are not controlled.
"Although the weather is dry, the risk of strong winds and thunderstorms remains, especially in western Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sarawak, and western Sabah," METMalaysia warned.
The statement further noted that thunderstorms usually occur in the early morning due to squall lines that can last for several hours.
The department urged the public to stay alert and follow weather warnings issued from time to time.
