Knowing 5 QZ8501 Crash Scenarios Ahead Of The Black Box Recovery
Air crash experts and aviation analysts weigh in on what could have happened in the ill-fated flight's final moments.
Cover image via rappler.com1. Emergency sea landing: The plane may have successfully landed on the water without any destructive impact, only to be overcome by high seas in the stormy weather
However, aviation expert Oliver Lamb pointed out that landing a plane smoothly on water is "extremely difficult" even when the seas are calm, let alone during a storm
2. Thunderstorm factory: Veteran pilots reportedly avoid the area where the plane vanished because of its violent weather patterns.
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While the storms may have caused the plane to experience severe turbulence, it is unlikely for the plane have broken apart mid-flight, as planes were designed to withstand serious structural damage by lightning or storm
3. Mid-air stall: A technical malfunction caused the pilot to accidentally induce an aerodynamic stall mid-air, not unlike the disaster that caused the Air France 447 crash in 2009 when it tried to avoid a thunderstorm
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While it is technically possible, the stall could only occur if the plane was travelling too slowly. Some have also pointed out that a well-trained pilot would have been able to correctly estimate the plane's speed in broad daylight.
4. Plane broke apart upon impact with water: Judging by the "contained" debris and intact bodies that had been found, the plane was still in one piece when it hit the ocean
Indonesian Air Force personnel on Tuesday, December 30, show debris, including a suitcase, that was found floating near the site where AirAsia Flight QZ8501 disappeared on Sunday.
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The close proximity of the debris field to its last known location (about 10km away) suggested that the aircraft plunged almost vertically into the water
5. Plane crashed in less than 45 seconds: The pilot could've lost control in a thunderstorm, causing the plane to dive into the water from 32,000 feet in a very short amount of time
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None of the recovered victims were wearing jackets, further giving weight to the theory. The plane's passengers were probably aware of the plane's sharp descent, but did not have enough time to react.
Investigators have already begun to start piecing together the final moments of Flight QZ8501 with available wreckage, although we will never truly know of the events leading to the plane's crash until the black boxes are recovered
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